Decisive-Focus
0x493cef47ca12db5c08fb55747d6cd279ebdb953e
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
62
Open notional
$1.5K
Total PnL
$-165.89
Realised
$190.25
Win rate
89%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 62- NO
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
140 shares @ 86.1¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$138.74
$18.14
- NO
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?
100 shares @ 80.0¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$99.05
$19.05
- YES
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
109 shares @ 83.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$90.85
$0.54
- NO
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
100 shares @ 92.0¢·now 62.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$62.00
$-30.00
- YES
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
100 shares @ 50.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$54.50
$4.50
- NO
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
100 shares @ 75.0¢·now 53.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$53.00
$-22.00
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
50 shares @ 90.5¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$48.98
$3.73
- NO
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
50 shares @ 90.0¢·now 93.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$46.92
$1.92
- NO
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
50 shares @ 90.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$46.25
$1.25
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
60 shares @ 91.3¢·now 76.8¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$46.05
$-8.75
Recent activity
- TRADESELLIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?$21.57Jun 14, 08:30 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael closes its airspace by June 13?$500.00Jun 14, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan win on 2026-06-14?$14.80Jun 14, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYMistral AI IPO before 2027?$1.41Jun 14, 00:58 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?$25.00Jun 14, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 14, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$22.50Jun 13, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by June 13?$398.40Jun 13, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?$40.27Jun 13, 21:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?$20.46Jun 13, 21:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?$4.40Jun 13, 20:42 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?$30.00Jun 13, 19:19 UTC
- TRADESELLIsraeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?$25.60Jun 13, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYSHEIN IPO before 2027?$3.03Jun 13, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYGTA 6 launch postponed again?$19.38Jun 13, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?$0.10Jun 13, 15:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?$0.70Jun 13, 14:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?$7.12Jun 13, 14:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?$0.43Jun 13, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$20.00Jun 13, 13:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $26.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 20:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 08:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.