Decisive-Focus
0x493cef47ca12db5c08fb55747d6cd279ebdb953e
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
96
Open notional
$915.88
Total PnL
$-196.50
Realised
$246.35
Win rate
86%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 96- YES
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
109 shares @ 83.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$99.01
$8.70
- YES
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
120 shares @ 47.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.40
$-9.00
- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
35 shares @ 95.3¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$34.81
$1.43
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
30 shares @ 67.7¢·now 93.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$28.11
$7.81
- YES
Weed rescheduled by December 31?
100 shares @ 25.0¢·now 23.6¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$23.65
$-1.35
- YES
Anduril IPO before 2027?
332 shares @ 24.1¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.58
$-58.27
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
100 shares @ 30.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$21.50
$-8.50
- YES
Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by August 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 20.0¢·now 20.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$20.00
$0.00
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
20 shares @ 89.5¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$19.94
$2.05
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?
20 shares @ 94.2¢·now 99.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$19.80
$0.96
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$6.32Jul 29, 09:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?$9.60Jul 29, 09:29 UTC
- REDEEMIran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?$0.00Jul 29, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by August 31, 2026?$20.00Jul 29, 09:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?$2.00Jul 28, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?$0.10Jul 28, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?$3.90Jul 28, 14:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?$7.90Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?$20.00Jul 27, 22:37 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by August 31?$7.40Jul 27, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?$2.40Jul 27, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$2.10Jul 27, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$2.80Jul 27, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?$10.00Jul 27, 14:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Elon Musk in July?$2.60Jul 27, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?$17.84Jul 27, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYMohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by July 31, 2026?$9.81Jul 27, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$10.35Jul 27, 08:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $7.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 07:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 09:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.