Rewarding-Pantologist
0x4959175440b8f38229b32f2f036057f6893ea6f5
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
184
Open notional
$694.94
Total PnL
$407.30
Realised
$379.51
Win rate
81%
97 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 184- NO
Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?
100 shares @ 59.0¢·now 26.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$26.00
$-33.00
- NO
Will George Pickens play for Dallas Cowboys in 2026-27?
42 shares @ 40.0¢·now 30.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$12.61
$-4.20
- NO
Will Anthony Hernandez be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 85.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.86
$1.47
- NO
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1600.00 or higher at the end of December 2026?
24 shares @ 22.7¢·now 40.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.84
$4.33
- NO
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?
10 shares @ 84.0¢·now 98.2¢·exp Aug 25, 2026$9.82
$1.42
- NO
Will Adam Schwarze be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
10 shares @ 80.2¢·now 95.2¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$9.52
$1.50
- NO
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Song Yadong next?
10 shares @ 87.8¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.51
$0.81
- NO
Will Matt Klein be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?
10 shares @ 57.0¢·now 97.7¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$9.33
$3.88
- NO
Will Strava’s market cap be less than $2B at market close on IPO day?
10 shares @ 87.0¢·now 92.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$9.29
$0.58
- NO
Will South African inflation be between 4.7% and 5.0% in 2026?
10 shares @ 69.0¢·now 89.1¢·exp Jan 20, 2027$8.91
$2.01
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill João de Deus Mendes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?$8.95Jul 28, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?$59.00Jul 27, 14:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?$10.70Jul 27, 14:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?$30.30Jul 27, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?$17.50Jul 27, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?$17.50Jul 27, 14:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?$8.07Jul 27, 09:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 27?$22.34Jul 27, 08:31 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Chongqing on July 27?$30.00Jul 27, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 42°C on July 27?$9.97Jul 27, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 27?$2.70Jul 27, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 27?$3.70Jul 27, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 27?$9.90Jul 27, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 27?$11.70Jul 27, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 27?$2.09Jul 27, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 27?$0.93Jul 27, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 27?$2.19Jul 27, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 27?$1.67Jul 27, 06:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?$1.91Jul 26, 22:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?$9.93Jul 26, 06:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
76/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
81% win rate over 97 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
97 closed markets, 81% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $11.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 00:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 10:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 97 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.