Yawning-Atmosphere
0x498955e925d2286f02939047ed114b72db886820
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-37.49
Realised
$-1.19
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 10?
1302 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-6.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 10?
1045 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on April 10?
469 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.80
- NO
Will Trump say "Farmer" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?
296 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by April 30?
98 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 10?
64 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 1?
49 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or below on May 1?
37 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.73
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 28?
23 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.31
- YES
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?
19 shares @ 17.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 1?$1.04Jun 1, 01:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 1?$1.05Jun 1, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 1?$3.13May 31, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 1?$1.03May 31, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?$2.38Apr 30, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?$1.03Apr 30, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by April 30?$1.04Apr 30, 16:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 30?$4.41Apr 30, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 30?$1.64Apr 30, 08:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30?$0.89Apr 30, 08:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on May 1?$0.72Apr 30, 08:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or below on May 1?$0.05Apr 30, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on May 1?$1.30Apr 30, 08:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30?$1.04Apr 30, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 30?$1.02Apr 30, 07:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30?$1.37Apr 30, 07:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on April 30?$1.92Apr 30, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on April 30?$1.03Apr 30, 04:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 30?$1.00Apr 30, 04:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or below on May 1?$1.05Apr 30, 01:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 29, 01:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 1, 01:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.