Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by April 30?
Probability
8¢
1h
+3.0pp
24h
-7.5pp
24h Vol
$1.5K
Liquidity
$3.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-54.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 8pp over 24h
Now 8¢; +3.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 101h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 8.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 100.6h
- 19:21SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 101h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-8.0pp over the last 24h, now 8¢.
Biggest hourly move: -48.5pp at 1d ago (to 14¢).
Show all 33 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · -35.0pp → 9¢
- 17:00 · -36.0pp → 8¢
- 15:00 · -27.5pp → 16¢
- 14:00 · -30.5pp → 16¢
- 12:00 · -37.0pp → 16¢
- 11:00 · -34.5pp → 16¢
- 09:00 · -44.5pp → 6¢
- 08:00 · -45.0pp → 5¢
- 06:00 · -39.0pp → 13¢
- 05:00 · -45.0pp → 5¢
- 03:00 · -34.0pp → 17¢
- 02:00 · -33.5pp → 17¢
- 00:00 · -34.5pp → 16¢
- 23:00 · -42.5pp → 16¢
- 21:00 · -41.5pp → 17¢
- 20:00 · -43.5pp → 16¢
- 1d ago · -42.0pp → 16¢
- 1d ago · -48.5pp → 10¢
- 1d ago · -43.0pp → 16¢
- 1d ago · -17.0pp → 42¢
- 1d ago · -27.0pp → 37¢
- 1d ago · -31.0pp → 31¢
- 1d ago · -48.5pp → 14¢
- 1d ago · -31.0pp → 27¢
- 2d ago · -42.5pp → 17¢
- 2d ago · -46.0pp → 23¢
- 2d ago · -44.5pp → 20¢
- 2d ago · -37.0pp → 26¢
- 2d ago · -29.5pp → 30¢
- 2d ago · -39.5pp → 32¢
- 2d ago · -34.5pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -32.0pp → 30¢
- 2d ago · -25.0pp → 37¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast is equal to or below the specified price for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR). A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released. Revisions or corrections to daily figures indicating a qualifying exchange rate will be considered only if they occur before all relevant figures for this market have been finalized. The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). Resolution will occur once the final exchange rate data point of the specified timeframe is finalized. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https://wwwAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowbonbast.com
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.