Unlined-Pole
0x49f206f4fb2210a28af4795e4e0b6532cf0bd7b4
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$11.5K
Total PnL
$-17.4K
Realised
$2.6K
Win rate
80%
45 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
2994 shares @ 91.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$3.0K
$252.91
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
4500 shares @ 3.1¢·now 23.8¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.1K
$932.63
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
3005 shares @ 28.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$676.13
$-165.32
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
736 shares @ 83.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$636.72
$25.51
- YES
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?
862 shares @ 72.8¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$547.60
$-80.10
- ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
1002 shares @ 44.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$425.73
$-14.94
- NO
Will Paul Skenes strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?
378 shares @ 91.5¢·now 90.3¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$341.14
$-4.72
- NO
Will Ben Rice win the 2026 American League MVP Award?
342 shares @ 93.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Nov 13, 2026$331.74
$13.68
- NO
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
510 shares @ 72.9¢·now 64.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2027$326.40
$-45.35
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
500 shares @ 59.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$292.50
$-2.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Jakob Marsee lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?$0.45Jul 28, 15:04 UTC
- TRADESELLTampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees$1.00Jul 28, 14:31 UTC
- TRADESELLTampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees$7.44Jul 28, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$840.00Jul 28, 02:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$1.45Jul 28, 02:32 UTC
- REWARD$0.16Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$245.66Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$0.60Jul 27, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$4.50Jul 27, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ruslan Titov win the 2026 Bryansk Oblast gubernatorial elections?$0.19Jul 27, 15:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron's next contract average $10M-$15M per year?$20.00Jul 27, 11:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron's next contract average $4M-$10M per year?$99.99Jul 27, 11:46 UTC
- TRADESELLTampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees$0.30Jul 27, 09:10 UTC
- MERGEKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$5.00Jul 27, 01:36 UTC
- MERGEWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$5.00Jul 27, 01:36 UTC
- MERGEWill Yandy Díaz have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?$34.56Jul 27, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYSAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?$4.40Jul 27, 00:53 UTC
- REWARD$254.19Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Arirang - BTS" be the top album for 2026?$225.76Jul 26, 23:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Arirang - BTS" be the top album for 2026?$3.80Jul 26, 23:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 45 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
45 closed markets, 80% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?
$7.7K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $47.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 06:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 15:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 45 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.