Wallet digest

active

Activity score

31/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.8K

Realised

$-104.49

Win rate

200 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

YES
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
YES
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1659 shares @ 6.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-101.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET
1266 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
YES
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1168 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-78.00
YES
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
544 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
YES
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
317 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-22.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
152 shares @ 18.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-27.93
YES
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina?
107 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
107 shares @ 9.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00

Recent activity

YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$1.05Jul 21, 09:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$1.05Jul 21, 09:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$1.05Jul 20, 14:26 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$2.63Jul 20, 13:39 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$1.05Jul 20, 12:51 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET$2.13Jul 20, 02:32 UTC
REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$155.79Jul 20, 02:02 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina?$3.18Jul 19, 11:40 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?$3.17Jul 19, 11:40 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Argentina?$3.17Jul 19, 11:40 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$2.12Jul 18, 16:19 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$2.12Jul 18, 16:18 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$2.13Jul 18, 16:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$2.13Jul 18, 16:05 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$5.92Jul 18, 16:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$1.05Jul 18, 16:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$2.14Jul 18, 16:01 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

3% win rate over 200 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

200 closed markets, 3% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity40 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry45 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk28 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 38
Avg trade size: $7.81
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 14, 13:27 UTC
Last active: Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
Win rate sample: 200 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 21:49:19 UTC·src:Polymarket Data