Mean-Somewhere
0x4a3b6ae4cccdd47cbd8563cd813155761deb3149
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
110
Open notional
$4.17
Total PnL
$-63.00
Realised
$27.20
Win rate
78%
58 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 110- YES
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
500 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.25
$-0.25
- YES
Will Desire Doue win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027?
5 shares @ 6.1¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.46
$0.16
- YES
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by July 31?
2 shares @ 2.9¢·now 19.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.43
$0.37
- YES
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.25
$-0.75
- YES
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
5 shares @ 2.7¢·now 2.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.15
$0.01
- YES
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
2 shares @ 4.0¢·now 7.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.11
$0.05
- YES
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
3 shares @ 6.4¢·now 4.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.11
$-0.05
- YES
Will annual inflation be 3.2% in July?
2 shares @ 3.5¢·now 4.8¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$0.10
$0.02
- YES
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by July 31?
1 shares @ 7.0¢·now 9.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.09
$0.02
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Trump speak to Xi Jinping in July?$0.16Jul 28, 23:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$0.33Jul 28, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLGreater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$0.22Jul 28, 17:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Madonna's monthly listeners figure hit 58m by August 31?$0.10Jul 27, 22:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?$0.27Jul 27, 22:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$1.67Jul 27, 21:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?$0.09Jul 27, 16:46 UTC
- TRADESELLHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$0.15Jul 27, 16:14 UTC
- TRADESELLHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$0.40Jul 27, 16:07 UTC
- TRADESELLHyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch?$0.56Jul 27, 15:32 UTC
- TRADESELLHyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch?$0.60Jul 27, 15:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation be 3.2% in July?$1.76Jul 27, 15:08 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump orders federal review of AI model releases by July 31?$1.04Jul 27, 14:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?$0.15Jul 27, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Madonna's monthly listeners figure hit 58m by August 31?$0.42Jul 27, 13:22 UTC
- TRADESELLHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$0.90Jul 27, 13:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.02Jul 27, 13:01 UTC
- TRADESELLAndrii Sybiha appointed as Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs by July 31?$0.09Jul 27, 13:01 UTC
- TRADESELLFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$0.68Jul 27, 12:54 UTC
- TRADESELLGreater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$0.80Jul 27, 12:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
78% win rate over 58 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
58 closed markets, 78% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 08:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 23:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 58 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.