BusinessExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027?

Probability

12¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$1.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

+5.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 21:00Apr 25, 2026, 20:33
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5979h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $1.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5979.4h

    LOW
  • 20:34Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 5979h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.

Biggest hourly move: -3.5pp at 2d ago (to 8¢).

Show all 3 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 1d ago · -3.0pp → 10¢
  • 2d ago · -3.0pp → 9¢
  • 2d ago · -3.5pp → 8¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or not the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, including a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or any other individual or team that officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.