Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027?
Probability
12¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5979h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $1.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5979.4h
- 20:34SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5979h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.
Biggest hourly move: -3.5pp at 2d ago (to 8¢).
Show all 3 hour-by-hour ticks
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 9¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 8¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or not the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, including a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or any other individual or team that officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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