Feisty-Shutdown
0x4a5dc168523262ed051c9d5689ab69e651d29ea3
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
77
Open notional
$3.3K
Total PnL
$-3.6K
Realised
$107.90
Win rate
89%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 77- NO
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?
500 shares @ 48.5¢·now 91.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$459.24
$216.75
- NO
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $2B?
500 shares @ 59.8¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$432.50
$133.54
- NO
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?
641 shares @ 57.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$381.39
$16.02
- NO
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?
500 shares @ 41.1¢·now 60.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$300.00
$94.31
- NO
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?
298 shares @ 75.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$285.01
$61.18
- NO
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?
339 shares @ 86.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$270.86
$-20.31
- NO
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?
376 shares @ 64.4¢·now 67.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$253.78
$11.73
- NO
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B?
250 shares @ 39.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$218.75
$121.25
- YES
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
225 shares @ 21.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$174.21
$127.01
- NO
Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 5?
100 shares @ 65.5¢·now 95.2¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$95.20
$29.70
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?$333.00Jul 8, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France vs. Morocco end in a draw?$102.25Jul 6, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?$108.73Jul 6, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?$95.45Jul 6, 07:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026?$27.00Jul 6, 07:00 UTC
- TRADESELLConsensys IPO closing market cap above $1B?$41.08Jul 4, 08:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States vs. Belgium end in a draw?$102.00Jul 4, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?$122.51Jul 4, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico vs. England end in a draw?$105.37Jul 4, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?$122.51Jul 4, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?$103.65Jul 4, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada vs. Morocco end in a draw?$148.09Jul 4, 07:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?$170.00Jul 4, 01:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?$349.96Jul 4, 01:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?$900.00Jul 4, 01:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw?$52.80Jul 2, 15:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?$54.00Jul 1, 23:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?$49.50Jul 1, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?$0.76Jul 1, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?$2.90Jul 1, 05:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $36.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 29, 09:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 8, 06:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.