Loading shell…
PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Aug 4, 2026

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Probability

48¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$5.10

Liquidity

$9.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

+5.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 12:52
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 2411h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $9.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 2411.1h

    LOW
  • 12:52Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 2411h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Aug 4, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket