Fumbling-Household-Fountain
0x4a7f6b130af9ba304b24cc0c51ef627bea9b3797
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
38
Open notional
$321.56
Total PnL
$-622.12
Realised
$0.31
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- NO
Will there be between 120m and 125m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
50 shares @ 87.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$41.25
$-2.25
- NO
Will the median home value in the US be less than $419,000 on September 30?
50 shares @ 79.6¢·now 78.7¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$39.35
$-0.45
- NO
Will Grüne win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
50 shares @ 79.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$35.75
$-3.75
- NO
Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
50 shares @ 91.2¢·now 69.6¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$34.80
$-10.80
- NO
Will the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting?
50 shares @ 74.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$32.25
$-4.75
- YES
Will the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting?
50 shares @ 75.0¢·now 62.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$31.00
$-6.50
- NO
Will Yash Patel be evicted in Big Brother season 28 (Week 1)?
50 shares @ 90.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$21.75
$-23.25
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the GA-11 House seat?
100 shares @ 11.0¢·now 9.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$9.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
50 shares @ 17.0¢·now 15.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$7.63
$-0.88
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
50 shares @ 21.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$7.25
$-3.25
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?$1.66Jul 14, 04:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?$1.53Jul 14, 02:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?$1.42Jul 14, 02:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?$0.04Jul 14, 02:32 UTC
- TRADESELLChina ballistic missile launch by December 31?$37.50Jul 14, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jordan Walker hit the most home runs in a single round during the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?$31.37Jul 14, 02:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Diana Onyeijaka be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee?$5.50Jul 14, 00:56 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.03Jul 14, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the CA-13 House seat?$6.00Jul 14, 00:38 UTC
- REWARD$0.16Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$44.10Jul 14, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Qatar recognize Israel by December 31?$2.48Jul 13, 23:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?$9.50Jul 13, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the GA-11 House seat?$4.50Jul 13, 14:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the GA-11 House seat?$6.50Jul 13, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the NY-13 House seat?$2.85Jul 13, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the MS-02 House seat?$5.00Jul 13, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.50 in July?$7.00Jul 13, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina ballistic missile launch by December 31?$40.50Jul 13, 11:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $170B by July 31?$9.00Jul 13, 11:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $18.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 23:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 04:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.