Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
Probability
20¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$12.2K
Liquidity
$12.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $12.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5899.8h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 20¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
6- 1¢0.0pp
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?
Crypto · Vol $5.8M
- 14¢-4.0pp
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?
Crypto · Vol $859.4K
- 0¢-1.5pp
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?
Crypto · Vol $529.2K
- 97¢+6.0pp
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?
Crypto · Vol $376.4K
- 33¢-17.0pp
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?
Crypto · Vol $304.8K
- 1¢-1.0pp
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?
Crypto · Vol $271.2K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the public valuation of Anthropic surpasses the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For Bitcoin, CoinGecko's data for BTC will be used, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, data from CoinMarketCap will be used instead. For Anthropic, any public valuation, or private funding round that values the company will be considered. To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by Anthropic or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will CoinGecko and Anthropic's official communications; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.