0x4a81fc76a78e59ef8807a9597d4f9b38bf8fb274
0x4a81fc76a78e59ef8807a9597d4f9b38bf8fb274
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$975.73
Total PnL
$-87.91
Realised
$65.73
Win rate
75%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- NO
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
269 shares @ 82.5¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$239.81
$17.63
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
158 shares @ 79.3¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$145.72
$20.84
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
152 shares @ 84.1¢·now 95.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$144.30
$16.51
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
120 shares @ 90.0¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$114.92
$7.30
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
109 shares @ 87.9¢·now 87.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$94.90
$-0.94
- NO
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
50 shares @ 94.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$50.03
$2.92
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
33 shares @ 84.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$27.80
$0.49
- NO
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?
27 shares @ 81.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$27.46
$5.17
- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
28 shares @ 91.4¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.87
$1.10
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
219 shares @ 16.4¢·now 11.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$25.50
$-10.44
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.04Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 12, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.