Our-Pipeline
0x4ae7e6a1cf587e586bec8870a708d7fb7b38561f
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.72
Total PnL
$-17.81
Realised
$85.53
Win rate
91%
90 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Matteo Renzi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
65 shares @ 0.5¢·now 1.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2028$0.72
$0.39
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- BOSNA ROYAL
Bosna Royal vs. Igokea
662 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-0.72
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13?
617 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-3.11
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14?
610 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.71
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13?
600 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 13?
583 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.62
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14?
500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15?
492 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.18
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15?
464 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.15
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Carlo Calenda be the next Prime Minister of Italy?$0.35Jul 4, 20:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Angelo Bonelli, be the next Prime Minister of Italy?$0.26Jul 4, 20:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Matteo Renzi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?$0.05Jul 4, 20:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Guido Crosetto be the next Prime Minister of Italy?$0.16Jul 4, 20:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Matteo Salvini be the next Prime Minister of Italy?$0.24Jun 25, 14:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matteo Renzi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?$0.14Jun 25, 12:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Matteo Renzi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?$0.01Jun 22, 03:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matteo Renzi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?$0.01Jun 22, 03:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matteo Renzi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?$0.03Jun 21, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matteo Renzi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?$0.03Jun 19, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matteo Renzi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?$0.05Jun 19, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matteo Renzi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?$0.04Jun 19, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Carlo Calenda be the next Prime Minister of Italy?$0.04Jun 19, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matteo Renzi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?$0.04Jun 19, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18?$0.30Jun 18, 06:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18?$0.40Jun 18, 04:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18?$0.02Jun 18, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18?$0.49Jun 18, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17?$0.40Jun 17, 09:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18?$0.18Jun 17, 09:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
69/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
91% win rate over 90 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
90 closed markets, 91% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 05:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 20:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 90 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.