Sparse-Divan
0x4b408276596a2e4bf51a7097c07604ec3dc518e6
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
28
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-140.35
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 28?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?
841 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.68
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 14?
836 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-4.18
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?
782 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.35
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 9?
729 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.46
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 9?
698 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-4.55
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 7?
550 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.65
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 15?
529 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.06
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 24?
343 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.03
- NETS
Nets vs. Pelicans
19 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.30
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw?$13.42Jul 10, 09:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw?$10.67Jul 3, 10:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of June 2026?$111.11Jul 3, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of June 2026?$111.00Jun 30, 09:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be 51°F or below on May 31?$10.61Jun 30, 09:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?$12.11Jun 30, 09:30 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$88.88Jun 30, 09:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$88.70May 31, 10:11 UTC
- REDEEMKosice: Dali Blanch vs Kilian Feldbausch$14.73May 31, 10:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30?$74.00May 31, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30?$73.94May 30, 04:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYKosice: Dali Blanch vs Kilian Feldbausch$8.21May 30, 04:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$81.91May 30, 04:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$82.00May 30, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be 51°F or below on May 31?$10.60May 30, 04:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 29?$11.91May 30, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29?$80.92May 30, 03:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29?$80.84May 29, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 29?$11.90May 29, 04:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28?$92.73May 29, 04:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $68.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 24, 04:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 09:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.