Jagged-Cellar
0x4b507680105258609aea4242313f8f671318be13
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$6.14
Total PnL
$-28.51
Realised
$6.54
Win rate
100%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
709 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.06
$0.35
- YES
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
673 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.01
$0.34
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- YES
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after August 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Solana dip to $30 in July?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in July?
362 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.36
$0.00
- YES
Will Solana reach $140 in July?
655 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.33
$-0.33
- YES
Will Frank Donovan be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
147 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.22
$0.07
- YES
Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?
353 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.18
$-0.18
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.01Jul 29, 08:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Solana reach $140 in July?$0.02Jul 29, 08:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Solana reach $140 in July?$0.05Jul 29, 03:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?$0.01Jul 29, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?$1.00Jul 29, 02:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pep Guardiola be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$0.01Jul 29, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raffaele Palladino be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$0.08Jul 29, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pep Guardiola be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$0.08Jul 29, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pep Guardiola be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$0.10Jul 29, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raffaele Palladino be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$0.10Jul 29, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raffaele Palladino be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$0.76Jul 28, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pep Guardiola be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$0.01Jul 28, 22:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$2.00Jul 28, 21:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?$2.00Jul 28, 19:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Solana reach $100 in July?$0.13Jul 28, 18:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pep Guardiola be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$0.79Jul 28, 18:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$0.37Jul 28, 15:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$0.01Jul 28, 15:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $1,000 in July?$1.00Jul 28, 15:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$0.04Jul 28, 15:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 06:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 08:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.