Unwritten-Quiet
0x4baf4239188fb0b708e4d16872986e1fa9af5fdf
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$44.5K
Total PnL
$1.8K
Realised
$12.30
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?
13603 shares @ 95.1¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$13.6K
$647.31
- NO
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
10435 shares @ 97.8¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.4K
$171.87
- NO
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
8906 shares @ 92.0¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.8K
$636.27
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?
6504 shares @ 97.4¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.5K
$149.43
- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
5000 shares @ 96.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.0K
$167.50
- NO
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
268 shares @ 98.1¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$266.46
$3.62
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 96.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.98
$0.38
- NO
Trump out as President by July 31?
10 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.98
$0.07
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 98.6¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.97
$0.12
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
7 shares @ 94.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.98
$0.34
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$390.98Jul 27, 05:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$2.5KJul 25, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$19.19Jul 25, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$293.44Jul 25, 06:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?$150.00Jul 25, 06:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?$1.7KJul 25, 02:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$1.4KJul 25, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$6.64Jul 21, 09:08 UTC
- REWARD$2.49Jul 21, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?$596.86Jul 20, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?$1.0KJul 20, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?$80.00Jul 20, 16:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$737.55Jul 20, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$156.73Jul 20, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$9.00Jul 20, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$63.90Jul 20, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$16.29Jul 20, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$85.50Jul 20, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$124.74Jul 20, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?$6.89Jul 20, 14:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
41 live trades, 2 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
2 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
$14.5K · 59% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $571.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 15:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 05:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.