Trustworthy-Membership
0x4bbf578f64c85fcc926626f18613e618e7cc50c0
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
70
Open notional
$45.74
Total PnL
$-45.00
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 70- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
6 shares @ 83.9¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.63
$0.63
- NO
Iran leadership change by April 30?
3 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$2.50
$0.50
- NO
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?
1 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$1.08
$0.08
- NO
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?
1 shares @ 94.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$1.06
$0.06
- NO
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?
1 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$1.05
$0.05
- NO
Netanyahu out by April 30?
1 shares @ 96.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.03
$0.03
- NO
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?
1 shares @ 97.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$1.03
$0.03
- NO
Will Moldova win the televote for Eurovision 2026?
1 shares @ 97.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$1.02
$0.02
- NO
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?
1 shares @ 98.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$1.02
$0.02
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 1?
1 shares @ 98.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$1.02
$0.02
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 1?$1.02Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 1?$1.02Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 1?$1.02Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March?$1.02Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 1?$1.02Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 1?$1.02Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMMeta "Mango" model released by March 31?$1.02Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 1?$1.03Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on April 1?$1.03Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 1?$1.03Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 1?$1.03Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 1?$1.03Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 1?$1.03Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 1?$1.03Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 1?$1.03Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran strike Turkey in March?$1.03Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on March 31?$1.03Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by March 31, 2026?$1.04Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 1?$1.04Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 1?$1.04Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 4, 22:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.