Mushy-Jackfruit
0x4bce96c815297b4edbbda6244f8833c6db0dd0ba
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$0.99
Total PnL
$-107.72
Realised
$-4.64
Win rate
8%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- YES
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?
7 shares @ 15.0¢·now 14.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.99
$-0.01
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
250 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-26?
191 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-0.40
- YES
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-03?
167 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June?
165 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.21
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of May 11 2026?
150 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.15
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of May 11 2026?
120 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.12
- NO
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
100 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.30
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 1?
100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.10
Recent activity
- REDEEMLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies$1.64Aug 19, 03:54 UTC
- REDEEMSeattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers$1.69Aug 19, 02:53 UTC
- REDEEMSan Diego Padres vs. New York Mets$2.00Aug 19, 02:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies$1.02Aug 17, 23:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYSeattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers$1.02Aug 17, 23:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins$1.02Aug 17, 23:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Diego Padres vs. New York Mets$1.02Aug 17, 23:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?$1.06Aug 17, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins AND Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies$1.00Aug 17, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Diego Padres vs. New York Mets AND Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox$1.00Aug 17, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Diego Padres vs. New York Mets AND Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays$1.00Aug 17, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. New York Mets AND Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays AND Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants$1.00Jul 29, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: France O/U 0.5$19.20Jul 14, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 14?$0.05Jul 12, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 13?$0.04Jul 12, 16:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win on 2026-07-10?$19.61Jul 10, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-07-10?$12.19Jul 10, 17:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Egypt win on 2026-07-07?$12.24Jul 7, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Egypt win on 2026-07-07?$11.40Jul 7, 12:36 UTC
- REDEEMTampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals AND Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies$3.05Jul 2, 02:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $3.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 31, 14:02 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 03:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.