Required-Charger
0x4bf6112ad3de52bc6a8fd8128e00140efc75fc6d
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$12.64
Total PnL
$-5.86
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
2 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.13
$0.02
- NO
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?
2 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$2.11
$0.01
- NO
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?
2 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.64
$0.00
- NO
Crude Oil all time high by March 31?
1 shares @ 99.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.35
$0.01
- NO
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?
1 shares @ 97.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.16
$0.02
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.08
$0.00
- NO
Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31?
1 shares @ 97.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.08
$0.03
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by May 8?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.05
$0.00
- NO
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.02
$0.00
- NO
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 10 above $190?
3 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-1.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 6-12?$1.12Jul 13, 04:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$1.08Jul 13, 00:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 11?$1.07Jul 11, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 6-12?$1.12Jul 11, 03:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$1.08Jul 11, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 11?$1.06Jul 11, 03:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C or below on July 6?$1.26Jul 6, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C or below on July 6?$1.26Jul 5, 08:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on June 30, 2026?$1.27Jul 1, 22:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$1.16Jun 30, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$1.16Jun 28, 09:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on June 30, 2026?$1.27Jun 28, 09:26 UTC
- REDEEMTrump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?$2.14Jun 16, 12:50 UTC
- REDEEMAnother GTA VI trailer released by June 15?$1.18Jun 16, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?$1.06Jun 14, 06:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?$1.05Jun 14, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother GTA VI trailer released by June 15?$1.15Jun 14, 06:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$2.11May 30, 02:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by May 8?$1.05May 9, 03:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?$1.08Apr 30, 06:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $4.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 11, 00:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 04:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.