Frayed-Cream
0x4c06388ddfbdd65c9debfb9e9f3d2f54c17da2b8
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-192.68
Realised
$13.50
Win rate
100%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 7?
2150 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.15
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 6?
2046 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-2.05
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 6?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 29?
1917 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.92
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on May 7?
1612 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.61
- YES
Will Justus Annunen win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy?
1233 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.23
- YES
Will John Carlson win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy?
1172 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.17
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 7?
1031 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.03
- YES
Will Joonas Korpisalo win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy?
1014 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?$7.94Jun 3, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?$8.49Jun 3, 13:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$3.81Jun 1, 07:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harman Bhangu win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?$0.13May 29, 16:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?$0.56May 19, 04:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?$1.00May 18, 19:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?$0.80May 18, 11:13 UTC
- REWARD$1.63May 17, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's public ticker be $SPC?$0.96May 16, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$3.77May 16, 09:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$1.92May 16, 09:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?$1.00May 16, 09:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country?$1.00May 16, 09:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq?$2.02May 16, 09:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?$1.22May 16, 09:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?$0.08May 16, 09:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?$20.31May 16, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?$23.15May 16, 07:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool?$22.87May 16, 03:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool?$28.45May 16, 03:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $11.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 14, 16:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 3, 13:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.