Thunderous-Cougar
0x4c693ea2589409b120f91d9db9e444b0c974665f
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$6.71
Total PnL
$-5.48
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
2 shares @ 98.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.17
$0.03
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 6?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$1.25
$-0.00
- NO
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.15
$0.00
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by May 8?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.08
$0.00
- NO
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.06
$0.00
- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 25?
3 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 25, 2025$0.00
$-1.04
- NO
Will Target (TGT) beat quarterly earnings?
3 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 19, 2025$0.00
$-1.15
- NO
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?
2 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 5, 2025$0.00
$-1.23
- NO
Will Bill Ackman say "Fannie" 20+ times during the X Space event on November 18?
2 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025$0.00
$-1.01
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - December 7, 5AM ET
2 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-1.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 6?$1.25Jul 5, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?$1.06Jun 28, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?$1.15Jun 28, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?$2.14May 30, 02:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?$1.07May 9, 03:19 UTC
- REDEEMCongress passes Iran war powers resolution by April 30?$1.12May 9, 03:19 UTC
- REDEEMGemini 3.5 released by April 30?$1.15May 9, 03:19 UTC
- REDEEMCrude Oil all time high by April 30?$1.30May 9, 03:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by May 8?$1.08May 9, 03:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill France join the Board of Peace?$1.26Apr 30, 04:05 UTC
- REDEEMNetanyahu out by 2025?$1.65Apr 30, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYCrude Oil all time high by April 30?$1.30Apr 30, 04:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYCongress passes Iran war powers resolution by April 30?$1.12Apr 29, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?$1.05Apr 29, 01:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 3.5 released by April 30?$1.13Apr 15, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France join the Board of Peace?$1.26Mar 29, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by 2025?$1.65Dec 30, 08:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia?$0.41Dec 29, 08:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia?$10.66Dec 29, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia?$11.07Dec 29, 07:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $4.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 12, 02:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 08:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.