Immense-Usage
0x4c70947f862f83590c7084ac900736cea7e3f74d
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
62
Open notional
$32.24
Total PnL
$-495.92
Realised
$-49.73
Win rate
29%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 62- YES
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
51 shares @ 17.3¢·now 20.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$10.26
$1.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 24?
18 shares @ 39.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$7.87
$0.97
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 25?
57 shares @ 15.7¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$6.59
$-2.41
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 25?
14 shares @ 31.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$4.36
$0.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 25?
99 shares @ 6.1¢·now 2.7¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$2.66
$-3.34
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C or higher on July 25?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- NO
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
2250 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
2031 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-18.92
- NO
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?
1549 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 24?$4.66Jul 23, 10:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 24?$6.36Jul 23, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 24?$2.08Jul 23, 09:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 24?$1.03Jul 23, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 24?$2.06Jul 23, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 24?$6.20Jul 23, 09:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$13.32Jul 23, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 25?$4.44Jul 23, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 25?$2.61Jul 23, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 25?$2.62Jul 23, 08:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$9.68Jul 23, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$3.27Jul 23, 08:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$3.09Jul 23, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$4.16Jul 23, 08:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$10.25Jul 23, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$11.11Jul 23, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$1.04Jul 23, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 25?$3.13Jul 23, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 24?$5.05Jul 23, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$2.08Jul 23, 08:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 00:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 10:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.