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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Oct 31, 2026

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Probability

98¢

1h

-0.1pp

24h

+3.6pp

24h Vol

$1.2M

Liquidity

$229.2K

Probability (last 7 days)

+3.5pp 7d
Apr 17, 2026, 19:00Apr 24, 2026, 18:07
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Without an Anthropic API key we show a heuristic summary derived from the market metrics.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 4541.9h

    LOW
  • 18:07Signal

    Signal · Clustered NO flow

    25 trades ($5,882) aligned on NO across 22 wallets in the last 30 min.

    HIGH
  • 18:07Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 4542h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 18:07Trade

    Motionless-Artifact · SELL YES $5.3K

    @ 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 3.8pp

    to 98¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 4.1pp

    to 98¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 4.3pp

    to 98¢

    MEDIUM
  • 15:00Price

    Probability up 4.4pp

    to 98¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

25
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWho will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Oct 31, 2026
Resolution source
UMA status
n/a
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the market rules.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket