Yellowish-Depth
0x4ca92fdfe0ee61f64b05c5312775b37346c91f64
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
46
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-211.27
Realised
$5.55
Win rate
71%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- YES
Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch?
2000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
1202 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 56°F or higher on January 14?
1021 shares @ 8.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-89.95
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 14?$0.63May 14, 03:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 14?$9.19May 14, 03:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 14?$4.19May 14, 03:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$0.00May 1, 10:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?$3.00Apr 29, 15:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$3.00Apr 29, 13:42 UTC
- REDEEMFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?$0.00Apr 27, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$3.00Apr 27, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?$3.00Apr 27, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$3.00Apr 27, 05:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?$11.30Apr 26, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?$3.16Apr 25, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?$2.00Apr 25, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?$2.84Apr 25, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?$2.00Apr 25, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?$0.28Apr 25, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$3.00Mar 29, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$3.00Mar 29, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$0.96Mar 29, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$0.08Mar 29, 20:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $4.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 27, 10:02 UTC
- Last active
- May 14, 03:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.