Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?

1. 1

   Heavy volume on this book — 3.7× turnover

   $30.5k traded against $8.2k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $8.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.