Assured-Premise
0x4d02e8a219f883fe5137ca2bb50da877a9d6d57e
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-53.38
Realised
$-0.85
Win rate
0%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on May 6?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C or higher on May 11?
67 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.12
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on May 12?
63 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-6.35
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 12?
40 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-4.78
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 13?
34 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.37
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on May 13?
27 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C or higher on May 13?
24 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on May 12?
24 shares @ 16.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-3.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16?
16 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-6.08
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on May 14?
14 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.99
Recent activity
- REDEEMNew Rihanna Album before GTA VI?$0.91Aug 1, 06:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on May 15?$5.00May 15, 20:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 15?$8.22May 15, 03:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or higher on May 14?$5.00May 14, 23:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on May 14?$5.81May 14, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16?$3.13May 14, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16?$3.13May 14, 20:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or higher on May 14?$5.00May 14, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on May 15?$2.91May 14, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 15?$0.44May 14, 08:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 13?$5.00May 14, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 15?$2.11May 14, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 14?$3.03May 14, 02:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on May 14?$0.57May 14, 02:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 13?$5.00May 14, 00:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on May 14?$0.42May 13, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or higher on May 14?$4.10May 13, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 15?$2.96May 13, 17:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on May 13?$7.05May 13, 06:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on May 13?$0.03May 13, 06:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $1.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 12, 01:19 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 06:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.