Loading shell…
EntertainmentExpires Jul 31, 2026

New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

Probability

61¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-4.5pp

24h Vol

$802.97

Liquidity

$43.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

-4.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 19:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:02
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Down 5pp over 24h

    Now 61¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 2323h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 2323.0h

    LOW
  • 17:02Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 2323h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 15:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 60¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 65¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 65¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 65¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 65¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 66¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 65¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 65¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 65¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 65¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 65¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 65¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 65¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 65¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 65¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rihanna officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Jul 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not stated explicitly — read the full market rules below.
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.