Reasonable-Paradise
0x4d1bcbaeed22c6da173b1a356c3c6d2270081419
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$12.5K
Total PnL
$-6.8K
Realised
$-4.8K
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
7378 shares @ 94.5¢·now 96.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$7.1K
$147.72
- NO
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
1438 shares @ 93.3¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.4K
$75.44
- NO
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
1257 shares @ 82.7¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.0K
$9.49
- YES
Will Google say "Advertising" or "Advertisement" during earnings call?
829 shares @ 97.5¢·now 97.4¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$807.32
$-0.66
- ANTHROPIC
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
1187 shares @ 56.8¢·now 65.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$771.57
$97.87
- YES
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
2995 shares @ 91.2¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$643.96
$-2.1K
- YES
Will Google say "Alphabet" during earnings call?
286 shares @ 97.7¢·now 98.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$280.01
$0.89
- YES
Will Google say "YouTube" during earnings call?
200 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.4¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$196.80
$0.82
- YES
Will Claude go down 12+ times in April?
187 shares @ 39.8¢·now 99.8¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$187.03
$112.36
- YES
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April?
865 shares @ 40.9¢·now 0.2¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.73
$-352.16
Recent activity
- REWARD$1.0922h ago
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$147.421d ago
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$190.001d ago
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$190.401d ago
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$190.601d ago
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$191.201d ago
- TRADESELLStarmer out by April 30, 2026?$1.3K1d ago
- TRADESELLStarmer out by April 30, 2026?$196.011d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Google say "Alphabet" during earnings call?$25.881d ago
- TRADESELLWill Claude go down 9-11 times in April?$0.301d ago
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$82.001d ago
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$59.171d ago
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$115.071d ago
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$4.941d ago
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$12.621d ago
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$82.421d ago
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$47.271d ago
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$561.731d ago
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$119.271d ago
- TRADESELLWill Claude go down 9-11 times in April?$0.231d ago
Score breakdown
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $146.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 3d ago
- Last active
- 22h ago
Score is a 0–100 composite of open position size, breadth (number of trades), realised + unrealised ROI, win rate on closed markets, and category specialisation.