Reasonable-Paradise
0x4d1bcbaeed22c6da173b1a356c3c6d2270081419
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$22.1K
Total PnL
$-5.2K
Realised
$-498.68
Win rate
54%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
9323 shares @ 94.2¢·now 95.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$8.9K
$114.55
- YES
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
2482 shares @ 95.3¢·now 97.1¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$2.4K
$43.82
- NO
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2650 shares @ 85.7¢·now 87.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.3K
$37.46
- NO
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3000 shares @ 57.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.7K
$2.53
- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2000 shares @ 80.2¢·now 80.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.6K
$11.00
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3000 shares @ 42.9¢·now 43.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.3K
$2.52
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
1119 shares @ 76.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$889.90
$39.23
- NO
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026?
687 shares @ 92.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$656.21
$24.05
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?
548 shares @ 88.8¢·now 93.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$509.63
$22.88
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
715 shares @ 56.0¢·now 62.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$443.30
$42.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?$178.25Jul 31, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYSituational Awareness Anthropic sale confirmed by August 31?$57.68Jul 31, 10:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?$5.75Jul 31, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYSituational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026?$6.09Jul 31, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYSituational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026?$0.80Jul 31, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYSituational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026?$0.73Jul 31, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYSituational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026?$627.04Jul 31, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$0.83Jul 31, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$0.44Jul 31, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$2.84Jul 31, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$854.69Jul 31, 10:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?$81.19Jul 31, 10:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?$208.05Jul 31, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down fewer than 5 times in August?$37.22Jul 31, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down fewer than 5 times in August?$85.00Jul 31, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down fewer than 5 times in August?$90.00Jul 31, 07:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.70Jul 31, 00:12 UTC
- REWARD$2.36Jul 31, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple say "Apple Intelligence" during earnings call?$53.43Jul 30, 23:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple say "Apple Intelligence" during earnings call?$294.00Jul 30, 21:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
54% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $193.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 15:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.