Reasonable-Paradise
0x4d1bcbaeed22c6da173b1a356c3c6d2270081419
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$10.7K
Total PnL
$-10.0K
Realised
$-6.0K
Win rate
50%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
4201 shares @ 92.7¢·now 93.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.9K
$24.57
- NO
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
2281 shares @ 84.6¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.9K
$-71.78
- YES
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
2280 shares @ 87.8¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.7K
$-256.74
- NO
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June?
1028 shares @ 92.4¢·now 94.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$974.60
$25.30
- NO
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?
675 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$673.44
$12.10
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
1200 shares @ 41.7¢·now 50.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$606.00
$106.00
- YES
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
748 shares @ 91.2¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$280.53
$-402.01
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
1000 shares @ 15.8¢·now 26.2¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$261.50
$102.90
- NO
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
1811 shares @ 36.1¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$226.35
$-426.86
- NO
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
314 shares @ 61.5¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$186.70
$-6.28
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$91.30Jun 13, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$91.40Jun 13, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$91.50Jun 13, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$91.60Jun 13, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$91.70Jun 13, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$91.79Jun 13, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$91.90Jun 13, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$92.00Jun 13, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$92.10Jun 13, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$92.20Jun 13, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$91.46Jun 13, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$92.40Jun 13, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$92.50Jun 13, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$92.60Jun 13, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$92.70Jun 13, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$92.80Jun 13, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$186.00Jun 13, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$186.54Jun 13, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$0.46Jun 13, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?$188.00Jun 13, 17:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $57.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 11:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 17:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.