Tepid-Giant
0x4d4c5167a98c05e6c4df1df47a3253ecaf0d3d2a
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
52
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$13.74
Win rate
33%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 52- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
33117 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-231.79
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 13?
26056 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-98.99
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?
24750 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-99.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 12?
19980 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-98.98
- YES
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
731 shares @ 40.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-295.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
719 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-25.06
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 4AM ET
571 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-13.14
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET
305 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-12.95
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET
280 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-12.89
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
254 shares @ 10.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-27.36
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$149.47Jun 2, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$91.56Jun 2, 15:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$43.16Feb 10, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $170 in January?$5.96Feb 3, 13:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $3,600 in January?$7.17Feb 3, 13:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $160 in January?$8.08Feb 3, 13:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?$8.80Feb 3, 13:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $150 in January?$19.30Feb 3, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$28.08Jan 19, 08:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 16?$13.84Jan 19, 08:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 15?$13.91Jan 19, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$55.00Jan 14, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$240.00Jan 14, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$132.00Jan 14, 21:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 13?$12.81Jan 14, 04:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 13?$13.70Jan 14, 04:02 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$0.08Jan 13, 00:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 12?$8.08Jan 12, 17:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 12?$11.07Jan 12, 17:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 12?$829.35Jan 12, 17:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $58.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 12, 11:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 2, 15:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.