Delirious-Nectarine
0x4d5e3ebf03769a2361ea2c97d67c54c11004a877
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$6.50
Total PnL
$-209.35
Realised
$515.23
Win rate
12%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
200 shares @ 8.0¢·now 3.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.50
$-9.50
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
10006 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-12.50
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 17?
3100 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-56.14
- YES
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?
2803 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-165.78
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 16?
2500 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-27.49
- YES
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?
2480 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-64.24
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20?
1704 shares @ 10.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-178.49
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 20?
1328 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.45
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18?
1000 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
800 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-52.66
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill three people dissent the July Fed decision?$60.00Jul 29, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill two people dissent the July Fed decision?$0.14Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill two people dissent the July Fed decision?$0.54Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill two people dissent the July Fed decision?$1.89Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill two people dissent the July Fed decision?$0.14Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill two people dissent the July Fed decision?$1.50Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill two people dissent the July Fed decision?$1.80Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill two people dissent the July Fed decision?$1.35Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill two people dissent the July Fed decision?$0.15Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill two people dissent the July Fed decision?$0.20Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill one person dissent the July Fed decision?$3.20Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- REWARD$1.01Jul 2, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill four or more people dissent the July Fed decision?$5.50Jul 1, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on July 1?$4.30Jul 1, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on July 1?$0.36Jul 1, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on July 1?$1.21Jul 1, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on July 1?$3.80Jul 1, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on July 1?$4.00Jul 1, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on July 1?$4.00Jul 1, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on July 1?$4.00Jul 1, 13:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
12% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $4.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 20, 14:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 22:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.