Delirious-Nectarine
0x4d5e3ebf03769a2361ea2c97d67c54c11004a877
Wallet digest
Activity score
98/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$216.24
Total PnL
$34.05
Realised
$556.26
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- NO
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?
100 shares @ 62.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$81.49
$19.49
- NO
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
50 shares @ 28.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$33.75
$19.75
- YES
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?
944 shares @ 14.0¢·now 3.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$28.79
$-103.73
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?
800 shares @ 3.0¢·now 2.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$22.40
$-1.50
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
200 shares @ 8.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$17.00
$1.00
- YES
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?
2480 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$11.16
$-53.08
- YES
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?
800 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$6.00
$-46.66
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?
303 shares @ 4.3¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.48
$-9.54
- YES
Will three people dissent the July Fed decision?
60 shares @ 5.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.30
$0.30
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?
500 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.75
$-0.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill three people dissent the July Fed decision?$2.41Jun 22, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill three people dissent the July Fed decision?$0.06Jun 21, 12:11 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.14Jun 21, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?$2.50Jun 20, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?$5.70Jun 20, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill three people dissent the July Fed decision?$0.53Jun 20, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20?$1.10Jun 20, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20?$1.57Jun 20, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20?$0.53Jun 20, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20?$0.51Jun 20, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20?$0.18Jun 20, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20?$0.51Jun 20, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 20?$1.07Jun 20, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20?$0.51Jun 20, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20?$0.51Jun 20, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20?$0.32Jun 20, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20?$12.80Jun 20, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20?$3.41Jun 20, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20?$8.91Jun 20, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20?$3.41Jun 20, 14:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $6.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 15:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 22, 08:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.