Wallet profile

Guilty-Bottling

0x4d671925a3a414081c8019737170587939b4ec57

activity 28/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

28/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

9

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-926.22

Realised

$-10.15

Win rate

0%

9 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

Recent activity

  • REFERRAL_REWARD$109.11Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$42.75Jul 6, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$102.06Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$216.42Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$71.67Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$137.00Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$26.35Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$16.89Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$103.46Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
  • TRADEBUYFortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 0.5$0.07Jun 28, 21:46 UTC
  • TRADEBUYFortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 0.5$64.82Jun 28, 21:46 UTC
  • TRADEBUYFortaleza EC vs. SC Recife: O/U 0.5$48.33Jun 28, 21:46 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$181.03Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$53.68Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$58.19Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$55.11Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$50.15Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$41.62Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$53.26Jun 22, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$52.73Jun 21, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

32/100
read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 9 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
pass

18 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.

Resolved-only track record
review

9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity32 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence30 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry56 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk48 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
18
Avg trade size
$9.55
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jun 7, 00:35 UTC
Last active
Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
Win rate sample
9 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 10:10:17 UTC·src:Polymarket Data