0x4d840f893614877da74db906018450afba0e21b1
0x4d840f893614877da74db906018450afba0e21b1
Wallet digest
Activity score
29/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$18.43
Total PnL
$-65.9K
Realised
$-22.3K
Win rate
2%
89 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
147 shares @ 68.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.91
$-83.09
- YES
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?
435 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.52
$-198.48
- NO
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23?
11272 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-5.5K
- NO
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-20?
7290 shares @ 43.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.2K
- YES
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-02-22?
7260 shares @ 20.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.5K
- YES
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?
4613 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-43.71
- NO
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-22?
4436 shares @ 49.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.2K
- NO
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-02-12?
3347 shares @ 49.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.7K
- NO
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-18?
3266 shares @ 77.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.5K
- NO
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-02-22?
3200 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-576.41
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 89 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
89 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 19:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 89 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.