Optimal-Discipline
0x4e2059e3e3bb2c31a9a4a0748e9278282a09ccb8
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$777.51
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
625 shares @ 67.2¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$515.61
$95.37
- YES
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
5120 shares @ 36.5¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$232.96
$-1.6K
- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
24 shares @ 42.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$14.17
$4.17
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
110 shares @ 54.1¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.55
$-47.95
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
5 shares @ 49.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.13
$-0.33
- YES
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
5 shares @ 26.0¢·now 22.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.10
$-0.20
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$7.46Jun 11, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$5.05May 24, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$334.99May 22, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$67.99May 22, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYCuban regime falls in 2026?$0.95May 21, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYCuban regime falls in 2026?$0.35May 21, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$2.45May 21, 17:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$13.80May 21, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$3.45May 21, 16:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$1.37Apr 13, 09:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament?$0.00Apr 13, 09:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?$0.00Apr 13, 09:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?$219.97Apr 12, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$1.00Apr 9, 09:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?$50.00Apr 8, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament?$100.00Apr 8, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$54.00Mar 1, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$5.50Mar 1, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$10.00Feb 25, 11:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$273.69Feb 10, 06:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $45.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 29, 14:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 11, 23:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.