0x4e25605fd905e9972efc0f4d8814530c655cd7a7
0x4e25605fd905e9972efc0f4d8814530c655cd7a7
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$214.2K
Total PnL
$209.6K
Realised
$210.9K
Win rate
84%
117 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
30332 shares @ 82.1¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.7K
$3.8K
- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
26545 shares @ 55.3¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$21.2K
$6.6K
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
20330 shares @ 81.8¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.8K
$2.2K
- NO
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
15043 shares @ 16.2¢·now 88.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.4K
$11.0K
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
12782 shares @ 81.3¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.8K
$1.4K
- NO
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
11188 shares @ 85.8¢·now 97.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.9K
$1.3K
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
11889 shares @ 21.1¢·now 85.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.1K
$7.6K
- NO
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
8164 shares @ 26.0¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.9K
$5.7K
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
8006 shares @ 82.8¢·now 96.8¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$7.7K
$1.1K
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
37473 shares @ 36.7¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$7.5K
$-6.2K
Recent activity
- YIELD$7.44Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$7.43Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$7.44Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$7.45Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$7.46Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$7.54Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$7.36Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$7.35Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$7.34Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$7.37Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$112.10Jul 18, 23:53 UTC
- YIELD$7.38Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$7.37Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$7.37Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$7.40Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$7.42Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$7.41Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$7.39Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$7.39Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$7.38Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
84% win rate over 117 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
117 closed markets, 84% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 06:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 117 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.