MacroExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?

Probability

14¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.0pp

24h Vol

$135.75

Liquidity

$19.2K

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 22:00Apr 25, 2026, 21:31
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 1

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 14¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $19.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5978.5h

    LOW

Price movement

-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.

Biggest hourly move: -4.0pp at 02:00 (to 12¢).

Show 6 hourly moves
  • 09:00 · -3.0pp → 13¢
  • 08:00 · -3.0pp → 13¢
  • 06:00 · -3.0pp → 13¢
  • 05:00 · -3.0pp → 13¢
  • 03:00 · -3.0pp → 13¢
  • 02:00 · -4.0pp → 12¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWhat will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Category · Macro

Market Description

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Federal Reserve
Link
federalreserve.gov
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket