Annual-Ounce
0x4e4139be892f75fe62f726e8c60faf2912f9288b
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$20.09
Total PnL
$-1.33
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
11 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$11.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Shas win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
3 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.9¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$2.60
$0.00
- NO
Will Nito Abreu win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?
2 shares @ 85.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$1.53
$0.23
- YES
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
1 shares @ 78.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 10, 2027$1.21
$0.21
- YES
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?
1 shares @ 87.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$1.15
$0.15
- NO
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
1 shares @ 97.8¢·now 97.3¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$0.99
$-0.01
- NO
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
1 shares @ 98.8¢·now 97.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.98
$-0.02
- NO
Paris Hilton pregnant in 2026?
1 shares @ 94.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.62
$-0.40
- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
17 shares @ 8.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$1.21Jul 24, 12:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in July?$354.00Jul 22, 05:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1800 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$1.10Jul 22, 01:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the earnings call not air?$1.68Jul 21, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in July?$354.01Jul 21, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$1.20Jul 21, 11:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$1.00Jul 21, 11:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?$355.56Jul 21, 11:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 18?$1.01Jul 20, 02:51 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?$355.99Jul 17, 05:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 18?$1.00Jul 17, 05:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1800 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$1.06Jul 17, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the earnings call not air?$1.67Jul 17, 05:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shas win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?$2.60Jul 17, 05:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYParis Hilton pregnant in 2026?$1.02Jul 17, 05:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 17, 05:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?$0.12Jul 17, 05:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?$353.88Jul 17, 05:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $100.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 12:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.