0x4e51ad8c318cad0d73ae7140c7488e4b3702448f
0x4e51ad8c318cad0d73ae7140c7488e4b3702448f
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$39.27
Total PnL
$-13.50
Realised
$6.24
Win rate
91%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 14.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.50
$-2.50
- YES
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
22 shares @ 31.5¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.22
$-1.78
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
6 shares @ 85.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.91
$-0.09
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
11 shares @ 36.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$2.72
$-1.28
- YES
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?
6 shares @ 53.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.07
$-0.93
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 47.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.81
$-0.19
- YES
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
7 shares @ 56.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$1.68
$-2.32
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
12 shares @ 17.2¢·now 12.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.42
$-0.58
- YES
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?
1 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$1.41
$0.41
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
4 shares @ 28.3¢·now 34.2¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.21
$0.21
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
91% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.