Crooked-Light
0x4e917f87399870464c67dcdf8baefdbdc938eb60
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
76
Open notional
$889.22
Total PnL
$-377.70
Realised
$-23.75
Win rate
37%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 76- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
691 shares @ 69.1¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$521.76
$44.20
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
99 shares @ 83.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$93.61
$11.39
- NO
Weed rescheduled by June 30?
77 shares @ 35.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$77.12
$49.81
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
46 shares @ 33.0¢·now 79.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$36.91
$21.64
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
36 shares @ 57.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.74
$12.34
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
72 shares @ 38.5¢·now 43.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$31.13
$3.24
- NO
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
30 shares @ 14.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$29.50
$25.30
- NO
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?
20 shares @ 93.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$20.10
$1.34
- NO
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?
13 shares @ 67.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$13.04
$4.28
- NO
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?
9 shares @ 36.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$8.66
$5.54
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 30, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
37% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.