Quiet-Probability
0x4ed46b84facf014ed84eb85398a0d0933e890096
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
39
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-159.31
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on January 31?
181 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.61
- YES
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$390 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 23 – Feb 27?
180 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.34
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 27?
173 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-3.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 1?
172 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.06
- UP
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on March 3?
156 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-3.42
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down on March 28?
142 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.56
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30?
129 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.42
- NO
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 30?
129 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.47
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 21?
111 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.66
- YES
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on February 1?
106 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.17
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on July 12?$2.65Jul 11, 22:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on July 4?$182.08Jul 4, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on July 4?$179.90Jul 4, 03:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 35 by May 31?$206.36Jun 1, 22:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 35 by May 31?$204.09May 31, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30?$1.52May 29, 23:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 20?$23.40May 25, 06:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 18?$175.10May 18, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 18?$173.52May 17, 17:56 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down on March 27?$47.95May 17, 17:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 25?$109.00May 11, 14:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $110 on January 30?$0.00May 3, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 25?$106.38Apr 25, 12:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 17?$135.80Apr 25, 12:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 20?$0.04Apr 19, 22:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 20?$20.86Apr 19, 22:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 17?$0.35Apr 18, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 17?$133.96Apr 18, 00:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill NYSE Composite (NYA) hit 18100 (LOW) in March?$150.74Apr 16, 23:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.80 on January 31?$0.00Apr 10, 18:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $59.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 6, 13:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 22:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.