Irritating-Manatee
0x4f77945ed9cb9d85096407bf78b20e867de341c3
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$10.07
Total PnL
$-276.68
Realised
$11.17
Win rate
88%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- YES
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
14 shares @ 74.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.07
$0.07
- UP
XRP Up or Down - January 17, 5PM ET
699 shares @ 23.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-166.66
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 6PM ET
178 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 7PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 5PM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 12AM ET
32 shares @ 60.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-19.37
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 22, 8PM ET
29 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-5.70
- UNDER
VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5
25 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
20 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$18.16Jul 9, 17:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?$10.13Jun 30, 18:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$12.12Jun 28, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMBengaluru 3: Ryuki Matsuda vs Yusuke Takahashi$1.19May 31, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?$10.15May 30, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBengaluru 3: Ryuki Matsuda vs Yusuke Takahashi$1.00May 18, 10:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?$1.06Feb 27, 13:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Matt Goodwin – Reform finish second in the Gorton and Denton by-election?$1.14Feb 27, 13:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Angeliki Stogia - Labour finish third in the Gorton and Denton by-election?$1.15Feb 27, 13:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amanda Gardner – Green Party finish third in the Gorton and Denton by-election?$10.00Feb 27, 13:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the margin of victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election be between 9% and 12%?$33.01Feb 27, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the margin of victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election be between 9% and 12%?$14.97Feb 27, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the margin of victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election be between 9% and 12%?$10.00Feb 27, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the margin of victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election be between 9% and 12%?$7.11Feb 27, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Angeliki Stogia - Labour finish third in the Gorton and Denton by-election?$1.00Feb 27, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matt Goodwin – Reform finish second in the Gorton and Denton by-election?$1.00Feb 27, 01:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?$1.00Feb 27, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amanda Gardner – Green Party finish third in the Gorton and Denton by-election?$8.90Feb 27, 01:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$2.70Feb 19, 01:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$0.19Feb 19, 01:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
88% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $7.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 1, 18:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 17:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.