Ragged-Hardboard
0x4fa84c759429e1e976b44d89542007df621ad618
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
88
Open notional
$100.10
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 88- NO
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?
100 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$100.10
$0.10
- NO
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
11000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-55.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- DOMINICAN REP.
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA
2771 shares @ 50.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.4K
- ITALY
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela
554 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-205.05
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 November 24-30?
444 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?
240 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on November 24?
185 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 24, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on November 24?
143 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 24, 2025$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?
124 shares @ 20.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025$0.00
$-25.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?$100.01May 28, 13:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $200 in April?$50.09May 28, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$50.20May 28, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $200 in April?$50.00Apr 3, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$50.00Apr 3, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYFinal Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela$205.05Mar 16, 23:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYFinal Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA$100.00Mar 16, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYFinal Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA$100.00Mar 16, 01:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$1.00Mar 16, 01:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Databricks’ market cap be $250B or greater at market close on IPO day?$0.99Mar 16, 01:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$1.00Mar 16, 01:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$1.01Mar 16, 01:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS?$1.04Mar 16, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYFinal Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA$100.00Mar 16, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYFinal Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA$1.1KMar 16, 00:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$1.1KMar 16, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$1.1KMar 2, 12:21 UTC
- TRADESELLMegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?$1.04Mar 2, 12:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.08Mar 2, 12:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in March 2026?$1.1KMar 2, 12:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $420.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 13, 07:10 UTC
- Last active
- May 28, 13:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.