Guilty-Forebear
0x4fad5916f72e19d8461a65135a46f02e2439d264
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
30
Open notional
$10.6K
Total PnL
$514.20
Realised
$-16.91
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
2197 shares @ 88.6¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.1K
$162.69
- NO
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
2035 shares @ 86.6¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.8K
$59.75
- NO
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
1733 shares @ 83.6¢·now 91.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$128.35
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
1443 shares @ 84.4¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$88.35
- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
1043 shares @ 91.5¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$969.91
$14.91
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
741 shares @ 81.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$611.13
$11.02
- NO
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?
317 shares @ 94.6¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$313.54
$13.54
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
395 shares @ 63.3¢·now 66.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$260.58
$10.58
- NO
Netanyahu out by June 30?
244 shares @ 82.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$240.98
$40.98
- NO
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
233 shares @ 85.8¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$209.61
$9.61
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBrazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5$5.08Jun 13, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?$5.11Jun 13, 14:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?$109.21Jun 13, 01:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?$312.96Jun 13, 01:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jun 13, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Czechia win on 2026-06-11?$2.53Jun 12, 03:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Czechia win on 2026-06-11?$5.13Jun 12, 03:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Czechia win on 2026-06-11?$5.12Jun 12, 03:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?$2.65Jun 12, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?$10.20Jun 12, 02:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$50.40Jun 12, 02:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jun 12, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$51.34Jun 11, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$51.26Jun 11, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$51.24Jun 11, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$100.35Jun 11, 16:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?$204.79Jun 11, 01:50 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Jun 11, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?$5.09Jun 10, 19:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?$1.01Jun 10, 18:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $108.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 26, 15:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 14:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.