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OtherExpires Dec 31, 2026

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

Probability

1h

-0.2pp

24h

+0.1pp

24h Vol

$52.45

Liquidity

$26.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

+1.1pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 12:53
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5987.1h

    LOW
  • 12:53Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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