Sizzling-Bassinet
0x4fb7f2ca0ec1c2cf5dc504369cf093096d6776af
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$99.83
Total PnL
$-22.87
Realised
$0.10
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
63 shares @ 97.8¢·now 97.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$61.71
$-0.29
- YES
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?
7 shares @ 95.0¢·now 92.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.84
$-0.16
- NO
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 20?
6 shares @ 98.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$6.10
$0.10
- DANIEL ALTMAIER
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Rinky Hijikata
6 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$6.10
$1.10
- NO
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
6 shares @ 83.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.30
$0.30
- NO
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
5 shares @ 94.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.08
$0.28
- YES
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?
4 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$4.21
$0.21
- YES
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?
4 shares @ 96.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$4.13
$0.13
- YES
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 93.0¢·now 6.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.35
$-4.65
- YES
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?
22 shares @ 89.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jun 23, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 22, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 17, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 8, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 7, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 6, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 5, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 4, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
5 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $5.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 13, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 00:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.