Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?
Probability
95¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$361.75
Liquidity
$50.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14748.0h
- 11:57SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14748h with open resolution ambiguity.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
7- 0¢-0.1pp
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Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?
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Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?
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Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?
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Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on IPO day?
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Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on IPO day?
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Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?
Science · Vol $1.0K
Market Description
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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