Defiant-Underestimate
0x4fd899f1001b62d6a8713d72878eae732f82af91
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$66.80
Total PnL
$18.37
Realised
$80.56
Win rate
100%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?
1000 shares @ 4.8¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$28.50
$-19.50
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?
1000 shares @ 4.0¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$25.40
$-14.60
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?
250 shares @ 1.7¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$4.13
$-0.13
- YES
Will Wilson Witzel win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
10 shares @ 1.0¢·now 25.4¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$2.54
$2.44
- YES
Will Lindbergh Farias win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
10 shares @ 1.0¢·now 25.4¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$2.54
$2.44
- YES
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
2876 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.44
$-4.31
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June?
100 shares @ 1.4¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.15
$-0.26
- YES
Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
4 shares @ 1.0¢·now 17.3¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$0.61
$0.57
- YES
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
999 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.50
$-13.85
- BRAZIL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)
100 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMSpread: Germany (-1.5)$30.00Jun 14, 19:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicola Miccione win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?$0.10Jun 13, 23:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?$1.30Jun 13, 23:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicola Miccione win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?$1.20Jun 13, 19:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June?$8.10Jun 13, 16:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June?$12.44Jun 13, 16:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?$8.75Jun 13, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wilson Witzel win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?$0.01Jun 13, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lindbergh Farias win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?$0.10Jun 13, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wilson Witzel win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?$0.09Jun 13, 00:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?$0.04Jun 13, 00:47 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.35Jun 13, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?$0.07Jun 12, 05:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nicola Miccione win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?$0.07Jun 12, 05:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?$13.59Jun 12, 03:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?$1.00Jun 12, 03:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?$2.00Jun 12, 03:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?$10.00Jun 12, 03:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?$9.70Jun 12, 03:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?$100.00Jun 12, 03:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $12.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 10:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 19:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.