Obvious-Rule
0x50290b2b1f0bc531d709f2eb37b2d28dc1fa8271
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$26.40
Total PnL
$-28.78
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28?
11 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$10.99
$0.99
- NO
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
10 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.00
$2.30
- YES
Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?
4 shares @ 49.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$4.01
$2.01
- NO
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
8 shares @ 58.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.40
$-3.24
- YES
Will Switzerland win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
71 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?
56 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
33 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?
31 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
23 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?$2.00Feb 28, 12:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$9.99Feb 28, 11:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$1.00Feb 7, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$1.00Feb 7, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$1.00Feb 7, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYMoltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?$2.00Feb 2, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYMoltbook shutdown by Feb 28?$10.00Jan 31, 22:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?$2.00Jan 24, 12:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?$10.99Jan 2, 21:18 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?$11.24Jan 2, 21:18 UTC
- REDEEMMaduro out in 2025?$11.49Jan 2, 21:18 UTC
- REDEEMTesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?$13.05Jan 2, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYTesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?$10.00Dec 15, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?$1.00Dec 14, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?$1.00Dec 14, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be greater than 520m by January 31?$2.13Dec 13, 23:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?$11.11Dec 13, 22:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? $12.82Dec 13, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$2.78Dec 9, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$3.71Dec 9, 18:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $4.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 6, 12:58 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 28, 12:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.