Complete-Thongs
0x50364f9378c3a946ffec255cee1a32969d2d3aad
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$15.6K
Total PnL
$1.1K
Realised
$3.8K
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?
6550 shares @ 95.1¢·now 94.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.2K
$-25.36
- NO
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?
5485 shares @ 96.4¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.4K
$90.13
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
9106 shares @ 19.4¢·now 13.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$1.2K
$-586.62
- NO
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
1159 shares @ 93.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$23.58
- YES
Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch?
7188 shares @ 33.3¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$1.0K
$-1.4K
- YES
Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch?
2273 shares @ 57.9¢·now 22.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$500.09
$-815.62
- YES
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?
362 shares @ 60.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$150.23
$-66.98
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.10Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.09Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?$3.6KJul 19, 09:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?$5.4KJul 19, 09:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.34Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.36Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.37Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$4.51Jul 11, 00:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
14 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 14
- Avg trade size
- $771.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 00:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.