Bustling-Patience
0x5046edc5a112e5fec014ec70e3b31d4abbb0245c
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$29.96
Win rate
67%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1AM ET
2260 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.26
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
2080 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-12.25
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2AM ET
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 9?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 7?
1400 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.40
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
1393 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-13.93
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 42-43°F on May 9?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET$2.92Jul 26, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$1.17Jul 26, 05:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$0.00Jul 26, 05:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$2.00Jul 26, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$1.23Jul 26, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$0.78Jul 25, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$1.01Jul 25, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$1.54Jul 25, 13:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026?$6.53Jul 25, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$1.57Jul 25, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$1.25Jul 25, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$1.25Jul 25, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$1.05Jul 25, 13:18 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$2.22Jul 25, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$1.14Jul 25, 13:14 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$2.52Jul 25, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$1.25Jul 25, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$1.24Jul 24, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.15Jul 24, 08:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$4.79Jul 24, 08:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $2.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 05:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 26, 05:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.